Predicting the weather

[siliggy]

Another renegade prediction maker.
http://www.accuweather.com/video/407...al-warming.asp

[siliggy]

http://www.weatheraction.com/display....asp?a=229&c=5
"On 7th August Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com long range forecasters said:- "Our forecast of 3 August - see http://bit.ly/beo5YQ - stands that the deadly floods in Pakistan and deadly heat in West Russia will largely continue until mid-August and we can now give more detail."
......
"We can now forecast with 85% confidence that both the Pakistan deluges and the West Russia heatwave will continue to mid August and probably INTENSIFY for a day or so around the dates August 8th, Aug 10th and most notably Aug14th/15th after which both the Pakistan deluges and Russia heat will markedly decline in ferocity. For Pakistan however significant floods downstream in the great rivers will continue for about 5 days."
7th August 2010
http://www.weatheraction.com/display....asp?a=229&c=5

"heatwaves and hot weather in much of Russia will largely continue to mid-August and then sharply decrease and end completely - turning cool - in the last week of August."
3 August 2010
http://www.weatheraction.com/display....asp?a=228&c=5

"The forecast shows the superheat now being experienced in much of Central and East Europe will beak down in massive thunderstorms before mid-month."
July 2010
http://www.weatheraction.com/display....asp?a=216&c=5

[sba-fta]

Originally Posted by siliggy

Another renegade prediction maker.
http://www.accuweather.com/video/407...al-warming.asp

siliggy (and others);

I see climate as a cycle. In a way, if one understands the chaos theory, the climate goes through both extremes. I think it's time for the alarmists to sit down and take a sip of tea or wine. Just relax, the climate will be alright.

Enjoy the weather.

[siliggy]

The temperature in Moscow now is 9 degrees C which is 3 degees below the average minimum for this time of year.

Edit up to 10 just after posted.

[L15]

Originally Posted by sba-fta

siliggy (and others);
I see climate as a cycle. ..... Just relax, the climate will be alright.
Enjoy the weather.

Does your belief in the weather cycles extend only as far as a few years or are you aware of the ice ages ?

Enjoy the weater indeed.

[sba-fta]

Originally Posted by L15

Does your belief in the weather cycles extend only as far as a few years or are you aware of the ice ages ?

Enjoy the weater indeed.

G'Day L15;

I am quite aware of the ice ages (there have been many of the them). Some are little, some are large, a few even cover the entire planet. In one ice age event, there was a land bridge between Asia and North America. The East Asians in the far northeast corner of Asia migrated to North America.

By-the-way, it's 'weather' not 'weater.'

So, sit back and enjoy the weather and if need be, adapt to it.

Cheers.

[VK2XSO]

Originally Posted by siliggy

"We can now forecast with 85% confidence that both the Pakistan deluges and the West Russia heatwave will continue to mid August and probably INTENSIFY for a day or so around the dates August 8th, Aug 10th and most notably Aug14th/15th after which both the Pakistan deluges and Russia heat will markedly decline in ferocity. For Pakistan however significant floods downstream in the great rivers will continue for about 5 days."

How many days before the floods did they make a prediction of them occurring ?


I was at a level crossing without lights and boom gates the other day.
A train clipped the front of my car. I didn't see it coming, but after the collision I could PREDICT that it would continue down the tracks for a couple of hundred metres before stopping.

[twometerdish]

Originally Posted by VK2XSO

I was at a level crossing without lights and boom gates the other day.
A train clipped the front of my car. I didn't see it coming, but after the collision I could PREDICT that it would continue down the tracks for a couple of hundred metres before stopping.

What a prediction Now you can join at WeatherAction.com Lets see what they predicted in future comes or not.

[siliggy]

Originally Posted by VK2XSO

How many days before the floods did they make a prediction of them occurring ?

Duno?!?

Originally Posted by VK2XSO

I was at a level crossing without lights and boom gates the other day.
A train clipped the front of my car. I didn't see it coming, but after the collision I could PREDICT that it would continue down the tracks for a couple of hundred metres before stopping.

Have a look at this fron 08:00 on (his prediction of when and how the train would stop is very different).
http://rt.com/Top_News/2010-08-12/gl...orologist.html

[VK2XSO]

I also wonder how many of their predictions don't come true and if they list them with their apparent success stories ?

Do they make mention of their hit and miss ratios ?

Do they explain in detail their methods of prediction and repeatedly compare this with observations ?

I just got a call from the Australian Skeptics. They want to make me a grand wizard

[siliggy]

"This drought may never break
IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation's most senior weather experts warned yesterday."

"Perhaps we should call it our new climate," said the Bureau of Meteorology's head of climate analysis, David Jones.
Sydney Morning Herald
January 4, 2008
http://www.smh.com.au/news/environme...949986473.html

[VK2XSO]

Choppa Reid summed it up a few years ago
Weather forecast for the next 10,000 years Alice Springs !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxTXV6FUkKI